Is US/Israel facing utter failure.?

Janine Roberts

The Voice of America reported, "Israeli political and military leaders say their aim is to render Hezbollah incapable of attacking Israel anymore, to chase the militant group away from the border. But the military campaign has proven to be much tougher than Israel anticipated, and Hezbollah a much more capable adversary than they realized. "

It now turns out that the UN resolution that Condi Rice has been trying to negotiate over the last week or two, and for this reason, refusing to call for a ceasefire, was one that gave Israel nearly everything it wanted - thus inflicting a defeat on Hezbollah through international pressure. She has been insisting, in the name of the US, that a ceasefire be not called until a resolution was agreed that saw the forced disarming of Hezbollah and the removal of them from Southern Lebanon - thus leaving Lebanon without any real defences of its own. The US hoped that the pressure of Israeli's shelling and bombing would force the Lebanese government to agree.

She has also totally ignored Hezbollah's, and Lebanon's, offer of an immediate ceasefire if Israel agreed to the same. it is days since this offer was made. Hundreds have died as a consequence of this delay.

The Lebanese Prime Minister today courageously refused to see Condi Rice unless to discuss an immediate ceasefire ... thus inflicting considerable damage on the above US plans. Without the government's agreement, it may be impossible for the US to get the resolution it is seeking. A staff member of the American University in Beirut said today on the BBC that the Prime Minister and Hezbollah were at one on this...and that this latest massacre was only the latest in many massacres inflicted by Israel.

But it should be noted, although rocketing Israel in revenge has helped keep up Lebanon's defiance and morale (as shown by public opinion polls), the rockets used simply have not inflicted anything more than a tiny fraction of the damage done by Israel on Lebanon - killing perhaps 15 Israeli civilians - that is one for every hundred missiles.

But international outrage is starting to defeat the US and Israel. It has forced Israel to agree to a temporary halt to the bombing. Let us hope Israel can be shamed into completely stopping it - although I don't have too much hope given how Israel has behaved to date. It should be noted that every shell and bomb that Israel uses has stamped on it "Made in the USA". The US only has to cut off war supplies to Israel to force an end to this conflict. This has not gone unnoticed in the Arab world - it has damaged US reputation even more in the region.

Soon the US supply lines to its troops in Iraq could be endangered - for they go through Shiite lands.

Associated Press has just reported

"Iraq's top Shiite cleric demanded an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon, warning Sunday that the Muslim world will ``not forgive'' nations that stand in the way of stopping the fighting.Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued the call following the Israeli airstrike that killed at least 56 Lebanese, mostly women and children, in the village of Qana. It was the deadliest attack in nearly three weeks of fighting [but there have been many other attacks killing cumulatively far more Lebanse children).

``Islamic nations will not forgive the entities that hinder a cease-fire,'' al-Sistani said in a clear reference to the United States.``It is not possible to stand helpless in front of this Israeli aggression on Lebanon,'' he added. ``If an immediate cease-fire in this Israeli aggression is not imposed, dire consequences will befall the region.'' Sunday July 30, 2006 9:31 PM BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP)

His authority is immense in Iraq. He has already ordered that Iraqi Shiites send humanitarian aid to Lebanon. He knows his people are totally enraged - and that they could try to isolate the US troops, making the US postion in Iraq in the long term totally untenible . All their vast tonnages of supplies are coming in by very vulnerable roads up from Kuwait. British troops will also be in deep trouble - if the 15 million Shiites of Iraq turn on them.

So far Israel has also inflicted enormous damage on its own international reputation - and that of the USA - and managed conversely to greatly increase public support for Hezbollah. it has so far been an unmitigated disaster for Israel - and looks like continuing to be so. The Lebanese government has announced that it will be seeking in court very considerable war reparations from Israel - and it seems Israel may well be forced to pay out what looks like a gigantic sum that could throw their economy into great distress.

Ist of August - Israeli newspaper (Heeretz ) publishes article saying Israel has not won this war - but is facing a diplomatic disaster.

Israeli Prime Minister - July 31st.; 'we will fight harder'.

But "it takes forethought to end a war"

By Nehemia Shtrasler

There was one moment during the war when we had the upper hand. It was the moment when Israel had succeeded in striking Hezbollah with strong and surprising force, Haifa was peaceful and the number of casualties was small. That was the right moment to stop the war, declare victory and move on to the diplomatic track.

This opportunity came when the G-8 convened on July 14, two days after the fighting broke out. The G-8 formulated a four-point plan, and nothing could have been better for Israel. According to that plan, the three Israeli soldiers abducted to Gaza and Lebanon would be return unharmed, the Katyusha fire against Israel would stop, Israel would halt its military operations and pull back its forces, and it would also release the Hamas ministers and parliament members.

The G-8 statement declared that the full responsibility for the crisis fell on Hamas and Hezbollah and asked the UN Security Council to immediately formulate a program for the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. The statement also called for the deployment of the Lebanese army in south Lebanon and suggested looking into the possibility of bringing an international force into the region. Israel and Lebanon were asked to launch diplomatic talks.

The international atmosphere was also pro-Israel, even among the hostile media. Israel received international legitimacy for its response to the killing and abduction of its soldiers inside its sovereign territory, and all the politicians, especially Ehud Olmert, were amazed at how much the world loved us.

But Olmert and Amir Peretz did not know when to quit. They wanted to show the public that they, the "civilians," were more courageous than their predecessors, Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon. That is why they continued the war in order to attain goals that from the outset were unattainable.

This does not mean that if Israel had adopted the G-8 proposal, the problem of Hezbollah would have been resolved. That would not have happened. That can only be resolved at the diplomatic level, with an Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese agreement. But at least it would have prevented us from deteriorating to the current situation, with its accompanying feeling of failure, the dead and the wounded, the attack on Israel's moral standing, the hatred toward it throughout the world and the damage to Israel's military deterrence.

Israel has not managed to crush Hezbollah, and worse, it has strengthened Hezbollah's standing in Lebanon and the Arab world, which is seeing how a tiny guerrilla organization has succeeded in standing up to the mighty Israel Defense Forces and causing Israel serious losses among its civilian population. That is a dangerous precedent.

The Olmert-Peretz plan was to shell and demolish south Lebanon and south Beirut until the Lebanese public demanded that its government vomit Hezbollah out from its midst. It appears that like a number of other Israeli leaders, they did not understand how much killing, poverty and distress people are willing to take, as long as their honor is not harmed, as long as they are not humiliated. And indeed, instead of demanding that Hezbollah be dismantled, the people of Lebanon want revenge, and they want it now. That is their response to the killing of 750 civilians and the destruction of thousands of homes, bridges, roads, villages and towns, putting Lebanon 20 years in the past.

Now, after the tragic events in Qana, which killed some 60 civilians, even Israel's greatest ally has changed direction and says it wants a speedy cease-fire. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has declared that Hezbollah's victory is the victory of the entire Lebanese people and that if Israel remains in south Lebanon, he will turn the Lebanese army against it. Siniora even spoke about a cease-fire without any agreement.

Other Lebanese, too - including some who are firm opponents of Hezbollah, such as Walid Jumblatt and Amin Gemayel - have also condemned Israel. Based on what has happened in the field, nothing remains of the grandiose goals of the beginning of the war.

Soon we will start to long for the excellent agreement offered by the G-8 at the beginning of the war. Today, it, too, is unattainable.

.